Introduction: What is the FOREX Market?
Primary Participants
Trades and Monitoring Positions – The Basics
Orders – Entry, Limit, Stop, Trailing
How to Profit
Fundamental Analysis
Geopolitical Events
FOMC
Employment Data
Beige Book
Inflation Data
International Trade
The Benchmark
Basics of Technical Analysis
Support and Resistance
Pivot Points
Trendlines and Channels
Fibonacci Retracements and Projections
Charting with the Fibonacci Sequence
Fib Retracements
Fib Projections
Price Patterns (Fractals)
Ascending Triangles/ Descending Triangles
Double Bottom/Double Tops
Head and Shoulders/Inverted H+S
Japanese Candlesticks
The Advantages
Doji
Double Doji
Hammer
Inverted Hammer
Shooting Star
Morning Sun
Harami Cross
Engulfing
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages
Bollinger Bands
Average Directional Movement Index
Parabolic SAR
Technical Oscillators
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD Histogram
RSI
Systems, Statistics and Data Management
Introduction to Trading Systems
Mean, Standard Deviations, Randomness
Application of Spreadsheets in Trading
Putting it all Together and Promoting Good Habits
Risk Management Techniques
Decision Making Techniques
Trading Logs
Building Account Equity
More trading tips
Dear Forex Trader,
When you're starting out, one of things you discover is that only a few forex traders actually scoop profits out of the market consistently. Just a tiny minority. Everyone else is losing, or just breaking even.
So what's their secret? Do winning forex traders have some special talent? Have they found some inside knowledge and locked the rest of us out? Do they have a knack of thinking "positive" or thinking "winning"? Is their computer more powerful and their trading software more sophisticated?
What is it?
Well...It's none of the above!
Let's have a look at the figure below.
The typical beginner trader moves with the "herd". He sees a rally, doesn't want to be left out, and enters the market at point A. But then winning traders, who were in earlier, start to cash in on their profits and the rally loses steam. So the beginner's position falls. His money is dissolving before his eyes! Either he panics and gets out at point B, when he can't bear the pain any more. Or, if he somehow manages to stay in long enough to see the next rally, he leaves at point C, relieved to recover at least some of his losses. This is exactly the kind of "herd" trader that successful traders prey upon.
But actually the beginner also lost at point C. Because during that exact same move the winning traders had leveraged their trading capital, entered and exited at the optimum times, and stuffed their accounts with profits!
You are about to see exactly how to win in the largest and the most vibrant financial market in the world!"
First, you are in a market which offers great potential and many trading opportunities.
Strangely, many small traders overlook Forex (Foreign Exchange). Yet no other trading instrument comes even close to matching its size, the fact that it's always open, and the profit potential it offers.
The Forex market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. Every day, on average, more than US$ 1.5 trillion is exchanged. That is more than all the global equity markets in the world combined! Foreign exchange is almost unimaginably huge.
Second, the Forex market is always open for business. No matter what country you live in you can always participate in Forex market!
The Forex day starts in Wellington, New Zealand. A few hours later it opens in Sydney, Hong Kong and Singapore. Three hours after that, traders start work in Dubai, in the UAE, and other Middle Eastern countries. A couple of hours later the foreign exchange opens in Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris and Rome. London then opens, and five hours New York and Chicago follow. And finally the West Coast swings into action.
True, there are two particularly busy times. Early European mornings when the major Asian exchanges are still open, and European afternoons when the biggest US markets are also open.
But wherever you live and whatever your work hours are you can always find some time to participate in Forex trading. You can't do this in the stock market, of course, where you are usually limited to the regular business hours of the exchanges.
And here's something else about trading forex. The profit potential is truly breathtaking because Forex is a perfect instrument to leverage with.
"How to leverage your capital in order to multiply your profits."
Many beginning traders don't fully understand the concept of leverage. Basically, if you have a start up trading capital of $5,000 and if you trade on a 1:50 margin you can effectively control a capital of $250,000. However, a two percent move against you and your trading capital is completely wiped out. If you are a beginning forex trader you should not use more than 1:20 margin until you get comfortable and profitable and then and only then you can attempt to use higher margins.
What does 1:20 margin mean? It means that with your $5,000 you will control a capital of $100,000. Let's say you are trading the currency pair EUR/USD and by using our entry strategy you have decided to enter the trade on a long side. That means that you are betting that USD will depreciate against Euro.
Let's say current EUR/USD rate is 1.305. Again, if your trading capital is $5,000 and you are using 1:20 leverage you will effectively be exchanging $100,000 to Euros. If the current rate is 1.305 you will receive 100,000/1.305 = 76,628 Euros.
If the trade goes in your direction margin will work in your favour and 1% decline in USD will mean 20% increase in your start up trading capital. So if EUR/USD rate moves from 1.305 to 1.318 you will be able to exchange your 76, 628 Euros back to $101,000 for a profit of $1,000. Since your start up trading capital was $5,000 it is effectively a 20% increase in your account. However, if the trade went against you and USD appreciated 1% vs. Euro your account would be reduced to $4,000. That would not have happened as our forex strategy has built in hard stops to prevent such outcome.
"If you want to get to the top of the forex market “food chain” you have come to the right place."
In our quest to find the most profitable and at the same time for a "small" trader feasible forex trading system we have tested and analysed many different forex trading strategies. The strategies that we have tested were ranging from simple combinations of TA indicators to more complex trading systems that were utilizing support/resistance levels, pivot points, chart patterns etc... However in order to reduce the number of systems that were later scrutinized more closely, we have developed our own system selection criteria. Basically the system that we were after had to have following properties: Simplicity, Efficiency and Consistency.
As we all know forex trading strategies are becoming more and more complex and sophisticated. What does it mean for our average independent forex trader? It means that our simplicity factor when developing a trading strategy gains in importance.
What usage could an average person make from a forex strategy that requires or presumes a profound knowledge in mathematics at a PhD level and a computing power beyond that of the newest personal home computer? A type of highly complex strategies commonly used by investment companies are neural networks. A neural network is, in short, a model of interconnected neurons (also known as nodes) that was inspired by the logical neurons in human nerve system. Like the human brain a neural network can acquire, store and utilize experiential knowledge in order to improve its performance day by day. Regrettably, to consistently use a forex strategy based on neural networks one requires the complex knowledge of how to feed a neural network with history data as well as excessively high computing power not affordable to our average forex trader.
Therefore we have set ourselves with a goal of finding a forex strategy that is comparable in it's profit potential to the most complex professional trading system and at the same time is feasible and understandable to our average trader.
How to avoid common mistakes...
There IS money to be made in the Forex market. But it is securely locked up in a vault with one of the thickest doors you will ever find. The key to opening that vault is to know when to enter a trade and when to exit.
True, you also have to conquer the six common reasons for failure:
Poor understanding and knowledge
Undercapitalization
Unrealistic expectations
Lack of patience
Lack of discipline
High risk aversion
You can have an excellent understanding of financial markets, realistic expectations, plenty of trading capital and nerves of steel and still fail, because you need a tested and proven entry / exit system. You need to know when to get in, when to get out, and you need to understand why.
Why do we keep repeating this?
Because it's important. In fact this is the only thing that is stopping you from cleaning up the market and pushing money into your account until it is almost bursting at the seams!
Look, if you fail in the foreign exchange markets you only have yourself to blame.
There are no forces out there controlling prices, like you might think after watching too many Oliver Stone movies. There's no "source" you must get closer to in order to become a winning trader.
Although, don't get me wrong. Some people do profit from your losses. They are:
Your dealer/broker
Your ISP and software vendors
Traders who are better than you.
And another thing. There is no easy route to accumulating a trading fortune.
We hear people claiming you can become wealthy by trading forex for only a couple hours a month. They're dreamers! If you are not willing to invest your time and effort, don't even start. Trading success doesn't come free and easy. You get out what you put in!
But also, it doesn't matter which direction a currency pair is trending. The only thing you need to make money is volatility. You're after are those nice fat intra and multiday swings, and as we all know there are plenty of these large swings in today's surging forex market.
You are clever and ambitious. However, we have to tell you that the Forex market is so huge, and market forces are so complex and strong, that most players get churned. Not even you can make it alone in that environment. You simply are not smart enough to claw your way to Forex profits without some help. This is our experience, after watching many small traders get eaten by the big sharks.
But we can help you, because we have developed a forex strategy that works for people exactly like you. Whether you're a small trader with some experience. Or a hesitant onlooker with just a few thousand dollars to invest.
We call it the "Forex Trading Strategy"TM and you have not seen anything like it. It's unique. It is solid gold!
Our trading strategy is so simple and so elegant it will astound you -- yet rests on a sophisticated analysis of human response to risk and change that has stood our most rigorous testing.
In clear, easy steps it shows you how to pick the best points to get in and a totally new way of picking exactly when to get out.
It is original. Not a re-mix of existing trading tactics.
There is nothing like it. You will not find it anywhere else.
It is simple enough for anyone to learn.
Its accuracy will astound you. We've been extensively testing and tracking the strategy, and it has never failed us.
You can start with as little as $2000.
This forex strategy teaches traders to be winners.
More than anything, our forex strategy is strikingly simple.
Simplicity
It has to be, of course. You don't want to have to attempt to understand the sophisticated, complex trading systems employed by the major corporate investors, with their teams of fully-resourced professionals using highly developed automated tracking networks and advanced mathematical formulas spread through several floors of their head office. Neither do you want to have to spend on an expensive, top-of-the-line computer stuffed with proprietary trading software.
Rather, you want a simple strategy which you can understand and quickly implement, and yet gets the same trading results as those coming out from the corporate office tower blocks. Our forex strategy delivers the results, yet is striking in its simplicity and elegance.
Next, our forex strategy is efficient.
Efficiency
That means, it is profitable. This is how various trading strategies are compared, actually. A system that shows more profit during a specific period is said to be more efficient. Our personal experience with this new strategy, and the extensive tests we have run, all show it is ruthlessly efficient. In fact, we have noticed that if a trader will simply follow our forex strategy, they will succeed. Forex strategies just don't get more efficient than that!
But there is something else -- our forex strategy is consistent. It always works.
Consistency
Again, this is what distinguishes the best strategies because you can only plan for capital draw downs and profit build-ups if you are consistently taking profits. You want to know that your forex strategy will keep returning profit even when the behaviour of the market changes with unexpected political or financial crisis, or after major events like September 11. Or even when something small changes, like adopting a hard stop of 45 pips instead of the 50 pip stop that has served you well in the past.
You want consistency when the market is suddenly hit by either small or large changes. And actually, you would almost certainly prefer a forex strategy that is efficient and highly consistent, than one that's highly efficient but less consistent.
Well, our forex strategy is so consistent you could set your clock by it. It is as safe as money in the bank. In fact, our testing has shown that the chance of losing all your trading capital is so small as to be almost non-existent.
So there you are. The safe, simple consistent strategy for the small trader like yourself, and you can test it without having to put up a single penny of trading capital.
When you're starting out, one of things you discover is that only a few forex traders actually scoop profits out of the market consistently. Just a tiny minority. Everyone else is losing, or just breaking even.
So what's their secret? Do winning forex traders have some special talent? Have they found some inside knowledge and locked the rest of us out? Do they have a knack of thinking "positive" or thinking "winning"? Is their computer more powerful and their trading software more sophisticated?
What is it?
Well...It's none of the above!
Let's have a look at the figure below.
The typical beginner trader moves with the "herd". He sees a rally, doesn't want to be left out, and enters the market at point A. But then winning traders, who were in earlier, start to cash in on their profits and the rally loses steam. So the beginner's position falls. His money is dissolving before his eyes! Either he panics and gets out at point B, when he can't bear the pain any more. Or, if he somehow manages to stay in long enough to see the next rally, he leaves at point C, relieved to recover at least some of his losses. This is exactly the kind of "herd" trader that successful traders prey upon.
But actually the beginner also lost at point C. Because during that exact same move the winning traders had leveraged their trading capital, entered and exited at the optimum times, and stuffed their accounts with profits!
You are about to see exactly how to win in the largest and the most vibrant financial market in the world!"
First, you are in a market which offers great potential and many trading opportunities.
Strangely, many small traders overlook Forex (Foreign Exchange). Yet no other trading instrument comes even close to matching its size, the fact that it's always open, and the profit potential it offers.
The Forex market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. Every day, on average, more than US$ 1.5 trillion is exchanged. That is more than all the global equity markets in the world combined! Foreign exchange is almost unimaginably huge.
Second, the Forex market is always open for business. No matter what country you live in you can always participate in Forex market!
The Forex day starts in Wellington, New Zealand. A few hours later it opens in Sydney, Hong Kong and Singapore. Three hours after that, traders start work in Dubai, in the UAE, and other Middle Eastern countries. A couple of hours later the foreign exchange opens in Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris and Rome. London then opens, and five hours New York and Chicago follow. And finally the West Coast swings into action.
True, there are two particularly busy times. Early European mornings when the major Asian exchanges are still open, and European afternoons when the biggest US markets are also open.
But wherever you live and whatever your work hours are you can always find some time to participate in Forex trading. You can't do this in the stock market, of course, where you are usually limited to the regular business hours of the exchanges.
And here's something else about trading forex. The profit potential is truly breathtaking because Forex is a perfect instrument to leverage with.
"How to leverage your capital in order to multiply your profits."
Many beginning traders don't fully understand the concept of leverage. Basically, if you have a start up trading capital of $5,000 and if you trade on a 1:50 margin you can effectively control a capital of $250,000. However, a two percent move against you and your trading capital is completely wiped out. If you are a beginning forex trader you should not use more than 1:20 margin until you get comfortable and profitable and then and only then you can attempt to use higher margins.
What does 1:20 margin mean? It means that with your $5,000 you will control a capital of $100,000. Let's say you are trading the currency pair EUR/USD and by using our entry strategy you have decided to enter the trade on a long side. That means that you are betting that USD will depreciate against Euro.
Let's say current EUR/USD rate is 1.305. Again, if your trading capital is $5,000 and you are using 1:20 leverage you will effectively be exchanging $100,000 to Euros. If the current rate is 1.305 you will receive 100,000/1.305 = 76,628 Euros.
If the trade goes in your direction margin will work in your favour and 1% decline in USD will mean 20% increase in your start up trading capital. So if EUR/USD rate moves from 1.305 to 1.318 you will be able to exchange your 76, 628 Euros back to $101,000 for a profit of $1,000. Since your start up trading capital was $5,000 it is effectively a 20% increase in your account. However, if the trade went against you and USD appreciated 1% vs. Euro your account would be reduced to $4,000. That would not have happened as our forex strategy has built in hard stops to prevent such outcome.
"If you want to get to the top of the forex market “food chain” you have come to the right place."
In our quest to find the most profitable and at the same time for a "small" trader feasible forex trading system we have tested and analysed many different forex trading strategies. The strategies that we have tested were ranging from simple combinations of TA indicators to more complex trading systems that were utilizing support/resistance levels, pivot points, chart patterns etc... However in order to reduce the number of systems that were later scrutinized more closely, we have developed our own system selection criteria. Basically the system that we were after had to have following properties: Simplicity, Efficiency and Consistency.
As we all know forex trading strategies are becoming more and more complex and sophisticated. What does it mean for our average independent forex trader? It means that our simplicity factor when developing a trading strategy gains in importance.
What usage could an average person make from a forex strategy that requires or presumes a profound knowledge in mathematics at a PhD level and a computing power beyond that of the newest personal home computer? A type of highly complex strategies commonly used by investment companies are neural networks. A neural network is, in short, a model of interconnected neurons (also known as nodes) that was inspired by the logical neurons in human nerve system. Like the human brain a neural network can acquire, store and utilize experiential knowledge in order to improve its performance day by day. Regrettably, to consistently use a forex strategy based on neural networks one requires the complex knowledge of how to feed a neural network with history data as well as excessively high computing power not affordable to our average forex trader.
Therefore we have set ourselves with a goal of finding a forex strategy that is comparable in it's profit potential to the most complex professional trading system and at the same time is feasible and understandable to our average trader.
How to avoid common mistakes...
There IS money to be made in the Forex market. But it is securely locked up in a vault with one of the thickest doors you will ever find. The key to opening that vault is to know when to enter a trade and when to exit.
True, you also have to conquer the six common reasons for failure:
Poor understanding and knowledge
Undercapitalization
Unrealistic expectations
Lack of patience
Lack of discipline
High risk aversion
You can have an excellent understanding of financial markets, realistic expectations, plenty of trading capital and nerves of steel and still fail, because you need a tested and proven entry / exit system. You need to know when to get in, when to get out, and you need to understand why.
Why do we keep repeating this?
Because it's important. In fact this is the only thing that is stopping you from cleaning up the market and pushing money into your account until it is almost bursting at the seams!
Look, if you fail in the foreign exchange markets you only have yourself to blame.
There are no forces out there controlling prices, like you might think after watching too many Oliver Stone movies. There's no "source" you must get closer to in order to become a winning trader.
Although, don't get me wrong. Some people do profit from your losses. They are:
Your dealer/broker
Your ISP and software vendors
Traders who are better than you.
And another thing. There is no easy route to accumulating a trading fortune.
We hear people claiming you can become wealthy by trading forex for only a couple hours a month. They're dreamers! If you are not willing to invest your time and effort, don't even start. Trading success doesn't come free and easy. You get out what you put in!
But also, it doesn't matter which direction a currency pair is trending. The only thing you need to make money is volatility. You're after are those nice fat intra and multiday swings, and as we all know there are plenty of these large swings in today's surging forex market.
You are clever and ambitious. However, we have to tell you that the Forex market is so huge, and market forces are so complex and strong, that most players get churned. Not even you can make it alone in that environment. You simply are not smart enough to claw your way to Forex profits without some help. This is our experience, after watching many small traders get eaten by the big sharks.
But we can help you, because we have developed a forex strategy that works for people exactly like you. Whether you're a small trader with some experience. Or a hesitant onlooker with just a few thousand dollars to invest.
We call it the "Forex Trading Strategy"TM and you have not seen anything like it. It's unique. It is solid gold!
Our trading strategy is so simple and so elegant it will astound you -- yet rests on a sophisticated analysis of human response to risk and change that has stood our most rigorous testing.
In clear, easy steps it shows you how to pick the best points to get in and a totally new way of picking exactly when to get out.
It is original. Not a re-mix of existing trading tactics.
There is nothing like it. You will not find it anywhere else.
It is simple enough for anyone to learn.
Its accuracy will astound you. We've been extensively testing and tracking the strategy, and it has never failed us.
You can start with as little as $2000.
This forex strategy teaches traders to be winners.
More than anything, our forex strategy is strikingly simple.
Simplicity
It has to be, of course. You don't want to have to attempt to understand the sophisticated, complex trading systems employed by the major corporate investors, with their teams of fully-resourced professionals using highly developed automated tracking networks and advanced mathematical formulas spread through several floors of their head office. Neither do you want to have to spend on an expensive, top-of-the-line computer stuffed with proprietary trading software.
Rather, you want a simple strategy which you can understand and quickly implement, and yet gets the same trading results as those coming out from the corporate office tower blocks. Our forex strategy delivers the results, yet is striking in its simplicity and elegance.
Next, our forex strategy is efficient.
Efficiency
That means, it is profitable. This is how various trading strategies are compared, actually. A system that shows more profit during a specific period is said to be more efficient. Our personal experience with this new strategy, and the extensive tests we have run, all show it is ruthlessly efficient. In fact, we have noticed that if a trader will simply follow our forex strategy, they will succeed. Forex strategies just don't get more efficient than that!
But there is something else -- our forex strategy is consistent. It always works.
Consistency
Again, this is what distinguishes the best strategies because you can only plan for capital draw downs and profit build-ups if you are consistently taking profits. You want to know that your forex strategy will keep returning profit even when the behaviour of the market changes with unexpected political or financial crisis, or after major events like September 11. Or even when something small changes, like adopting a hard stop of 45 pips instead of the 50 pip stop that has served you well in the past.
You want consistency when the market is suddenly hit by either small or large changes. And actually, you would almost certainly prefer a forex strategy that is efficient and highly consistent, than one that's highly efficient but less consistent.
Well, our forex strategy is so consistent you could set your clock by it. It is as safe as money in the bank. In fact, our testing has shown that the chance of losing all your trading capital is so small as to be almost non-existent.
So there you are. The safe, simple consistent strategy for the small trader like yourself, and you can test it without having to put up a single penny of trading capital.
How to trade Forex?
How to trade Forex?
Trading foreign exchange is exciting and potentially very profitable, but there are also significant risk factors. It is crucially important that you fully understand the implications of margin trading and the particular pitfalls and opportunities that foreign exchange trading offers. On these pages, we offer you a brief introduction to the FX markets as well as their participants and some strategies that you can apply. However, if you are ever in doubt about any aspect of a trade, you can always discuss the matter in-depth with one of our dealers. They are available 24 hours a day on the Saxo Bank internet trading system, SaxoTrader.
The benchmark of its service is efficient execution, concise analysis and expertise - all achieved whilst maintaining an attractive and competitive cost structure. Today, Saxo Bank offers one of Europe's premier all-round services for trading in derivative products and foreign exchange. We count amongst our employees numerous dealers and analysts, each of whom has many years experience and a wide and varied knowledge of the markets - gained both in our home countries and in international financial centres. When trading foreign exchange, futures and other derivative products, we offer 24-hour service, extensive daily analysis, individual access to our Research & Analysis department for specific queries, and immediate execution of trades through our international network of banks and brokers. All at a price considerably lower than that which most companies and private investors normally have access to.
The combination of our strong emphasis on customer service, our strategy and trading recommendations, our strategic and individual hedging programmes, along with the availability to our clients of the latest news and information builds a strong case for trading an individual account through Saxo Bank.
Terms of trading are agreed individually depending on the volume of your transactions, but are generally much lower in cost when compared to banks and brokers. Your margin deposit can be cash or government securities, bank guarantees etc. Large corporate or institutional clients may be offered trading facilities on the strength of their balance sheet. The minimum deposit accepted for an individual trading account depends on the account type. Trade confirmations and realtime acount overview are built into SaxoTrader, while further account information can be produced in accordance with your specific requirements.
Trading foreign exchange is exciting and potentially very profitable, but there are also significant risk factors. It is crucially important that you fully understand the implications of margin trading and the particular pitfalls and opportunities that foreign exchange trading offers. On these pages, we offer you a brief introduction to the FX markets as well as their participants and some strategies that you can apply. However, if you are ever in doubt about any aspect of a trade, you can always discuss the matter in-depth with one of our dealers. They are available 24 hours a day on the Saxo Bank internet trading system, SaxoTrader.
The benchmark of its service is efficient execution, concise analysis and expertise - all achieved whilst maintaining an attractive and competitive cost structure. Today, Saxo Bank offers one of Europe's premier all-round services for trading in derivative products and foreign exchange. We count amongst our employees numerous dealers and analysts, each of whom has many years experience and a wide and varied knowledge of the markets - gained both in our home countries and in international financial centres. When trading foreign exchange, futures and other derivative products, we offer 24-hour service, extensive daily analysis, individual access to our Research & Analysis department for specific queries, and immediate execution of trades through our international network of banks and brokers. All at a price considerably lower than that which most companies and private investors normally have access to.
The combination of our strong emphasis on customer service, our strategy and trading recommendations, our strategic and individual hedging programmes, along with the availability to our clients of the latest news and information builds a strong case for trading an individual account through Saxo Bank.
Terms of trading are agreed individually depending on the volume of your transactions, but are generally much lower in cost when compared to banks and brokers. Your margin deposit can be cash or government securities, bank guarantees etc. Large corporate or institutional clients may be offered trading facilities on the strength of their balance sheet. The minimum deposit accepted for an individual trading account depends on the account type. Trade confirmations and realtime acount overview are built into SaxoTrader, while further account information can be produced in accordance with your specific requirements.
Working with statistics
Working with statistics
Trade Balance
The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.
The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.
It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.
Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.
Gross Domestic Product
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.
As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.
A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.
The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.
The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.
The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.
A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.
Payroll Employment
Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.
Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.
Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.
Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.
Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Retail Sales
Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.
Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Housing Starts
Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.
The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.
Trade Balance
The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.
The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.
It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.
Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.
Gross Domestic Product
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.
As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.
A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.
The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.
The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.
The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.
A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.
Payroll Employment
Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.
Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.
Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.
Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.
Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.
Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Retail Sales
Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.
Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.
Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.
Housing Starts
Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.
The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.
Forex trading examples
Forex trading examples
Example 1
An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.
The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.
The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.
Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.
Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.
Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.
Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.
As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.
This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.
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Example 2:
The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR o and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).
The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.
Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.
He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR o at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.
Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.
The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.
This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx.USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
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Example 3
The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:
He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investors sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.
Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.
After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.
Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.
Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.
The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
Example 1
An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.
The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.
The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.
Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.
Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.
Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.
Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.
As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.
This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example 2:
The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR o and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).
The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.
Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.
He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR o at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.
Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.
The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.
This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx.USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example 3
The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:
He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investors sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.
Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.
After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.
Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.
Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.
The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
Forex Trading Basics
Forex Trading Basics
The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The USD 1.2 trillion daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.
There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.
Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.
In the following, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other FX traders and get answers to any questions you might have.
Margin Trading
Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, SaxoBank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.
In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed. Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Base Currency and Variable Currency
When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell Euro. Or buy Euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.
The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against German marks, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of Euro credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in Euro, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.
This way of trading is different to the futures markets, for example, where the marks, francs and yen are the fixed trade currency, resulting in a US dollar denominated profit or loss. You can, however, also choose to trade in this reciprocal manner in foreign exchange markets but it is not the norm.
Dealing Spread, but No Commissions
When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.
The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions, e.g. USD/EUR 1.7780-85. This means that you can sell US dollars against the Euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.
This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USD/EUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.
Spot and forward trading
When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. Due to the fact that the EU investment directive does not presently cover spot foreign exchange trading we will, however, require you to swap your trade forward at least another two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.
Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.
Interest Rate Differentials
Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.
Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 - disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar, and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.
Stop-loss discipline
As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.
Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.
But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.
For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.
The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The USD 1.2 trillion daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.
There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.
Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.
In the following, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other FX traders and get answers to any questions you might have.
Margin Trading
Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, SaxoBank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.
In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed. Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Base Currency and Variable Currency
When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell Euro. Or buy Euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.
The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against German marks, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of Euro credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in Euro, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.
This way of trading is different to the futures markets, for example, where the marks, francs and yen are the fixed trade currency, resulting in a US dollar denominated profit or loss. You can, however, also choose to trade in this reciprocal manner in foreign exchange markets but it is not the norm.
Dealing Spread, but No Commissions
When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.
The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions, e.g. USD/EUR 1.7780-85. This means that you can sell US dollars against the Euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.
This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USD/EUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.
Spot and forward trading
When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. Due to the fact that the EU investment directive does not presently cover spot foreign exchange trading we will, however, require you to swap your trade forward at least another two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.
Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.
Interest Rate Differentials
Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.
Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 - disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar, and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!
Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.
Stop-loss discipline
As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.
Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.
But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.
For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.
History
History
Brief history of Forex trading
Initially, the value of goods was expressed in terms of other goods, i.e. an economy based on barter between individual market participants. The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted means of exchange at a fairly early stage in history, to set a common benchmark of value. In different economies, everything from teeth to feathers to pretty stones has served this purpose, but soon metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value.
Originally, coins were simply minted from the preferred metal, but in stable political regimes the introduction of a paper form of governmental IOUs (I owe you) gained acceptance during the Middle Ages. Such IOUs, often introduced more successfully through force than persuasion were the basis of modern currencies.
Before the First World War, most central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. Although paper money could always be exchanged for gold, in reality this did not occur often, fostering the sometimes disastrous notion that there was not necessarily a need for full cover in the central reserves of the government.
At times, the ballooning supply of paper money without gold cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. To protect local national interests, foreign exchange controls were increasingly introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.
In the latter stages of the Second World War, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The Bretton Woods Conference rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favour of a system built on the US dollar. Other international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WW2 searched for a way to avoid the destabilising monetary crises which led to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that partly reinstated the gold standard, fixing the US dollar at USD35/oz and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar - and was intended to be permanent.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the sixties. A number of realignments kept the system alive for a long time, but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early seventies following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was no longer suitable as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.
The following decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the largest global market by far. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.
But the idea of fixed exchange rates has by no means died. The EEC (European Economic Community) introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to fix exchange rates met with near extinction in 1992-93, when pent-up economic pressures forced devaluations of a number of weak European currencies. Nevertheless, the quest for currency stability has continued in Europe with the renewed attempt to not only fix currencies but actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2001.
The lack of sustainability in fixed foreign exchange rates gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates, in particular in South America, looking very vulnerable.
But while commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have found a new playground. The size of foreign exchange markets now dwarfs any other investment market by a large factor. It is estimated that more than USD1,200 billion is traded every day, far more than the world's stock and bond markets combined.
Brief history of Forex trading
Initially, the value of goods was expressed in terms of other goods, i.e. an economy based on barter between individual market participants. The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted means of exchange at a fairly early stage in history, to set a common benchmark of value. In different economies, everything from teeth to feathers to pretty stones has served this purpose, but soon metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value.
Originally, coins were simply minted from the preferred metal, but in stable political regimes the introduction of a paper form of governmental IOUs (I owe you) gained acceptance during the Middle Ages. Such IOUs, often introduced more successfully through force than persuasion were the basis of modern currencies.
Before the First World War, most central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. Although paper money could always be exchanged for gold, in reality this did not occur often, fostering the sometimes disastrous notion that there was not necessarily a need for full cover in the central reserves of the government.
At times, the ballooning supply of paper money without gold cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. To protect local national interests, foreign exchange controls were increasingly introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.
In the latter stages of the Second World War, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The Bretton Woods Conference rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favour of a system built on the US dollar. Other international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WW2 searched for a way to avoid the destabilising monetary crises which led to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that partly reinstated the gold standard, fixing the US dollar at USD35/oz and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar - and was intended to be permanent.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the sixties. A number of realignments kept the system alive for a long time, but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early seventies following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was no longer suitable as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.
The following decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the largest global market by far. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.
But the idea of fixed exchange rates has by no means died. The EEC (European Economic Community) introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to fix exchange rates met with near extinction in 1992-93, when pent-up economic pressures forced devaluations of a number of weak European currencies. Nevertheless, the quest for currency stability has continued in Europe with the renewed attempt to not only fix currencies but actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2001.
The lack of sustainability in fixed foreign exchange rates gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates, in particular in South America, looking very vulnerable.
But while commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have found a new playground. The size of foreign exchange markets now dwarfs any other investment market by a large factor. It is estimated that more than USD1,200 billion is traded every day, far more than the world's stock and bond markets combined.
Overview
Foreign Exchange
This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.
As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.
Overview
Foreign exchange, forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 1.5 trillion every day. This is more than one hundred times the daily trading on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). Most forex trading is speculative, with only a few percent of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.
Unlike trading on the stock market, the forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the forex market is a 24-hour market.
Trading Forex
A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the Euro/US Dollar, or the GB Pound/Japanese Yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD , USDJPY , USDCHF and GBPUSD .
The most important forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.
Forward Outrights
For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF , for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.
Trading on Margin
Trading on margin means that you can buy and sell assets that represent more value than the capital in your account. Forex trading is usually conducted with relatively small margin deposits. This is useful since it permits investors to exploit currency exchange rate fluctuations which tend to be very small. A margin of 1.0% means you can trade up to USD 1,000,000 even though you only have $10,000 in your account. A margin of 1% corresponds to a 100:1 leverage (or 'gearing'). (Because USD 10,000 is 1% of USD 1,000,000.) Using this much leverage enables you to make profits very quickly, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Therefore, it is inadvisable to maximise your leveraging as the risks can be very high. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Why trade Forex?
24 hour trading
One of the major advantages of trading forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
Superior liquidity
The forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
No commissions
The fact that forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis.
Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
100:1 Leverage
Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
Profit potential in falling markets
Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the U.S. dollar gets stronger against the Euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the Euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy Euro back at a lower price and take your profits. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.
Important Forex Trading Terms
Spread
The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at ( Bid) and the price you can buy currency at ( Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Pips
A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.
On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the va value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.
Trading Scenario – Trading Rising Prices
If you believe that the Euro will strengthen against the dollar you'll want to buy Euro now and sell it back later at a higher price.
• You buy Euro We quote EURUSD at Bid 0.9875 and Ask 0.9878, which means that you can sell 1 Euro for 0.9875 USD or buy 1 Euro for 0.9878 USD .
In this example you buy Euro 100,000, at the quote price of 0.9878 (ask price) per Euro.
• The market moves in your favor Later the market turns in favour of the Euro and the EURUSD is now quoted at Bid 0.9894 and Ask 0.9896.
• Now you sell your Euro and get the profit You sell Euro at a Bid price of 0.9894.
• The profit is calculated as follows Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9894 minus 0.9878) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 140 Profit
(Note that the profit or loss is always expressed in the secondary currency)
Trading Scenario – Trading Falling Prices
If, on the other hand, you believe that the Euro will weaken against the dollar, you'll want to sell EURUSD .
• You sell Euro We quote EURUSD at a Bid price of 0.9875 and Ask price of 0.9880 and you decide to sell Euro 100,000 at a Bid price of 0.9875.
• The market moves in your favour The Euro weakens against the dollar and the EURUSD is now quoted at bid 0.9744 and ask 0.9749.
• Now you buy back your Euro You buy EUR at an ask price of 0.9749.
• Your Profit/loss is then Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9875 minus 0.9749) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 1260 Profit
Remember that trading EUR 100,000 as we have done in our examples, does not mean that you have to put up Euro 100,000 yourself. On a 2% margin means that you have to deposit 2.0% of Euro 100,000, which is Euro 2,000 on margin as a guarantee for the future performance of your position.
Further Reading
To see how you can trade the forex market and benefit from our toolbox of information and live quotes, please proceed to the Forex Quick Start found under the Trading menu of SaxoTrader.
Glossary
• Appreciation An increase in the value of a currency.
• Ask The price requested by the trader. This usually indicates the lowest price a seller will accept.
• Base currency The currency that the investor buys or sells (i.e. EUR in EURUSD ).
• Bear Someone who believes prices are heading down. A bear market is one in which there is a sustained fall in prices and which does not look like it will recover quickly.
• Bid The price offered by the trader. This usually indicates the highest price a purchaser will pay.
• Bid/Ask The Bid rate is the rate at which you can sell. The Ask (or offer) rate is the rate at which you can buy.
• Bull Someone who is optimistic about the market. A bull market is characterised by enthusiastic and sustained buying.
• cross When trading with currencies, the investor buys one currency with another. These two currencies form the cross: for example, EURUSD .
• Cross rate An exchange rate that is calculated from two other exchange rates.
• Depreciation/decline A fall in the value of a currency.
• Exchange rate What one currency is worth in terms of another, for example the Austrialian dollar might be worth 58 US cents or 70 yen.
Currencies traded freely on foreign-exchange markets have a spot rate (applying to trades settled 'spot', ie, two working days hence) and a forward rate. Countries can determine their exchange rates in a variety of ways.
1. A floating exchange rate system where the currency finds its own level in the market.
2. A crawling or flexible peg system which is a combination of an officially fixed rate and frequent small adjustments which in theory work against a build-up of speculation about a revaluation or devaluation.
3. A fixed exchange-rate system where the value of the currency is set by the government and/or the central bank.
• EURUSD Means that you trade EUR against dollars. If you buy Euro you pay in dollars and if you sell Euro you receive dollars.
• FX, Forex, Foreign Exchange All names for the transaction of one currency for another, e.g. you buy £100.00 with USD 150.25 or sell USD 150.25 for £100.00.
• Interbank Short-term (often overnight) borrowing and lending between banks, as distinct from banks' business with their corporate clients or other financial institutions.
• Interest rate differential The yield spread between two otherwise comparable debt instruments denominated in different currencies.
• Leverage (gearing) In this case leverage means that the investor only funds part of the amount traded.
• Long To buy.
• Long position A position that increases its value if market prices increase.
• Liquid (-ity) The capacity to be converted easily and with minimum loss into cash. A liquid market is one in which there is enough activity to satisfy both buyers and sellers. Ultra-short-dated treasury notes are an example of a liquid investment.
• Margin The deposit required when entering into a position as well as to hold an open position. Your margin status can be monitored in the Account Summary.
• NYSE The New York Stock Exchange.
• Open position A position in a currency that has not yet been offset. For example, if you have bought 100,000 USDJPY , you have an open position in USDJPY until you offset it by selling 100,000 USDJPY , thus "closing" the position.
• “Over the counter” When trading takes place directly between two parties, rather than on an exchange. Over the counter trades can be customised whereas exchange-traded products are often standardised.
• Pips A pip is the smallest unit by which a Forex cross price quote changes. So if EURUSD bid is now quoted at 0.9767 and it moves up 2 pips, it will be quoted at 0.9769.
• Position Traders talk of 'taking a position' which simply means buying or selling currency cross. 'Position' can also refer to a trader's cash/securities/currencies balance, whether he or she is short of cash, has money to lend, is overbought or oversold in a currency, etc.
• Risk Trying to control outcomes to a known or predictable range of gains or losses. Risk management involves several steps which begin with a sound understanding of one's business and the exposures or risks that have to be covered to protect the value of that business. Then an assessment should be made of the types of variables that can affect the business and how best to protect against unwelcome outcomes. Consideration must also be given to the preferred risk profile - whether one is risk- averse or fairly aggressive in approach. This also involves deciding which instruments to use to manage risk, and whether a natural hedge exists that can be used. Once undertaken, a risk-management strategy should be continually assessed for effectiveness and cost.
• Secondary currency (variable currency or counter currency) The currency that the investor trades the base currency against (i.e. USD in EURUSD ).
• Short position A position that benefits from a decline in market prices.
• Short To sell.
• Speculative Buying and selling in the hope of making a profit, rather than doing so for some fundamental business-related need.
• Spot A Spot rate is the current market price of an asset.
• Spot market The part of the market calling for spot settlement of transactions. The precise meaning of 'spot' will depend on local custom for a commodity, security or currency. In the UK, US and Australian foreign-exchange markets, 'spot' means delivery two working days hence.
• Spread The difference between the bid and the ask rate.
This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.
As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.
Overview
Foreign exchange, forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 1.5 trillion every day. This is more than one hundred times the daily trading on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). Most forex trading is speculative, with only a few percent of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.
Unlike trading on the stock market, the forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the forex market is a 24-hour market.
Trading Forex
A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the Euro/US Dollar, or the GB Pound/Japanese Yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD , USDJPY , USDCHF and GBPUSD .
The most important forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.
Forward Outrights
For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF , for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.
Trading on Margin
Trading on margin means that you can buy and sell assets that represent more value than the capital in your account. Forex trading is usually conducted with relatively small margin deposits. This is useful since it permits investors to exploit currency exchange rate fluctuations which tend to be very small. A margin of 1.0% means you can trade up to USD 1,000,000 even though you only have $10,000 in your account. A margin of 1% corresponds to a 100:1 leverage (or 'gearing'). (Because USD 10,000 is 1% of USD 1,000,000.) Using this much leverage enables you to make profits very quickly, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Therefore, it is inadvisable to maximise your leveraging as the risks can be very high. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Why trade Forex?
24 hour trading
One of the major advantages of trading forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
Superior liquidity
The forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
No commissions
The fact that forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis.
Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
100:1 Leverage
Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
Profit potential in falling markets
Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the U.S. dollar gets stronger against the Euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the Euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy Euro back at a lower price and take your profits. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.
Important Forex Trading Terms
Spread
The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at ( Bid) and the price you can buy currency at ( Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled "Trading Conditions" found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
Pips
A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.
On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the va value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.
Trading Scenario – Trading Rising Prices
If you believe that the Euro will strengthen against the dollar you'll want to buy Euro now and sell it back later at a higher price.
• You buy Euro We quote EURUSD at Bid 0.9875 and Ask 0.9878, which means that you can sell 1 Euro for 0.9875 USD or buy 1 Euro for 0.9878 USD .
In this example you buy Euro 100,000, at the quote price of 0.9878 (ask price) per Euro.
• The market moves in your favor Later the market turns in favour of the Euro and the EURUSD is now quoted at Bid 0.9894 and Ask 0.9896.
• Now you sell your Euro and get the profit You sell Euro at a Bid price of 0.9894.
• The profit is calculated as follows Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9894 minus 0.9878) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 140 Profit
(Note that the profit or loss is always expressed in the secondary currency)
Trading Scenario – Trading Falling Prices
If, on the other hand, you believe that the Euro will weaken against the dollar, you'll want to sell EURUSD .
• You sell Euro We quote EURUSD at a Bid price of 0.9875 and Ask price of 0.9880 and you decide to sell Euro 100,000 at a Bid price of 0.9875.
• The market moves in your favour The Euro weakens against the dollar and the EURUSD is now quoted at bid 0.9744 and ask 0.9749.
• Now you buy back your Euro You buy EUR at an ask price of 0.9749.
• Your Profit/loss is then Sell price-buy price x size of trade
(0.9875 minus 0.9749) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 1260 Profit
Remember that trading EUR 100,000 as we have done in our examples, does not mean that you have to put up Euro 100,000 yourself. On a 2% margin means that you have to deposit 2.0% of Euro 100,000, which is Euro 2,000 on margin as a guarantee for the future performance of your position.
Further Reading
To see how you can trade the forex market and benefit from our toolbox of information and live quotes, please proceed to the Forex Quick Start found under the Trading menu of SaxoTrader.
Glossary
• Appreciation An increase in the value of a currency.
• Ask The price requested by the trader. This usually indicates the lowest price a seller will accept.
• Base currency The currency that the investor buys or sells (i.e. EUR in EURUSD ).
• Bear Someone who believes prices are heading down. A bear market is one in which there is a sustained fall in prices and which does not look like it will recover quickly.
• Bid The price offered by the trader. This usually indicates the highest price a purchaser will pay.
• Bid/Ask The Bid rate is the rate at which you can sell. The Ask (or offer) rate is the rate at which you can buy.
• Bull Someone who is optimistic about the market. A bull market is characterised by enthusiastic and sustained buying.
• cross When trading with currencies, the investor buys one currency with another. These two currencies form the cross: for example, EURUSD .
• Cross rate An exchange rate that is calculated from two other exchange rates.
• Depreciation/decline A fall in the value of a currency.
• Exchange rate What one currency is worth in terms of another, for example the Austrialian dollar might be worth 58 US cents or 70 yen.
Currencies traded freely on foreign-exchange markets have a spot rate (applying to trades settled 'spot', ie, two working days hence) and a forward rate. Countries can determine their exchange rates in a variety of ways.
1. A floating exchange rate system where the currency finds its own level in the market.
2. A crawling or flexible peg system which is a combination of an officially fixed rate and frequent small adjustments which in theory work against a build-up of speculation about a revaluation or devaluation.
3. A fixed exchange-rate system where the value of the currency is set by the government and/or the central bank.
• EURUSD Means that you trade EUR against dollars. If you buy Euro you pay in dollars and if you sell Euro you receive dollars.
• FX, Forex, Foreign Exchange All names for the transaction of one currency for another, e.g. you buy £100.00 with USD 150.25 or sell USD 150.25 for £100.00.
• Interbank Short-term (often overnight) borrowing and lending between banks, as distinct from banks' business with their corporate clients or other financial institutions.
• Interest rate differential The yield spread between two otherwise comparable debt instruments denominated in different currencies.
• Leverage (gearing) In this case leverage means that the investor only funds part of the amount traded.
• Long To buy.
• Long position A position that increases its value if market prices increase.
• Liquid (-ity) The capacity to be converted easily and with minimum loss into cash. A liquid market is one in which there is enough activity to satisfy both buyers and sellers. Ultra-short-dated treasury notes are an example of a liquid investment.
• Margin The deposit required when entering into a position as well as to hold an open position. Your margin status can be monitored in the Account Summary.
• NYSE The New York Stock Exchange.
• Open position A position in a currency that has not yet been offset. For example, if you have bought 100,000 USDJPY , you have an open position in USDJPY until you offset it by selling 100,000 USDJPY , thus "closing" the position.
• “Over the counter” When trading takes place directly between two parties, rather than on an exchange. Over the counter trades can be customised whereas exchange-traded products are often standardised.
• Pips A pip is the smallest unit by which a Forex cross price quote changes. So if EURUSD bid is now quoted at 0.9767 and it moves up 2 pips, it will be quoted at 0.9769.
• Position Traders talk of 'taking a position' which simply means buying or selling currency cross. 'Position' can also refer to a trader's cash/securities/currencies balance, whether he or she is short of cash, has money to lend, is overbought or oversold in a currency, etc.
• Risk Trying to control outcomes to a known or predictable range of gains or losses. Risk management involves several steps which begin with a sound understanding of one's business and the exposures or risks that have to be covered to protect the value of that business. Then an assessment should be made of the types of variables that can affect the business and how best to protect against unwelcome outcomes. Consideration must also be given to the preferred risk profile - whether one is risk- averse or fairly aggressive in approach. This also involves deciding which instruments to use to manage risk, and whether a natural hedge exists that can be used. Once undertaken, a risk-management strategy should be continually assessed for effectiveness and cost.
• Secondary currency (variable currency or counter currency) The currency that the investor trades the base currency against (i.e. USD in EURUSD ).
• Short position A position that benefits from a decline in market prices.
• Short To sell.
• Speculative Buying and selling in the hope of making a profit, rather than doing so for some fundamental business-related need.
• Spot A Spot rate is the current market price of an asset.
• Spot market The part of the market calling for spot settlement of transactions. The precise meaning of 'spot' will depend on local custom for a commodity, security or currency. In the UK, US and Australian foreign-exchange markets, 'spot' means delivery two working days hence.
• Spread The difference between the bid and the ask rate.
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